Surfaces, Balls and Reserves – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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