Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
